Tradition

Keynesianism

20th century to present

The macroeconomic tradition holding that aggregate demand drives output and employment, and that market economies can settle at persistent underemployment without state action.

Keynesianism holds that output and employment are driven by aggregate demand, that a market economy can come to rest at persistent underemployment with no automatic tendency to correct, and that fiscal and monetary policy therefore have work to do which no amount of price flexibility will accomplish.

Keynes made the argument in The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), against an orthodoxy holding that unemployment reflected wages which had failed to fall far enough. His counter had three parts. Spending decisions are interdependent, since one person's expenditure is another's income, so a fall in demand is self-reinforcing and not self-correcting. Saving and investment are undertaken by different people for different reasons. And decisions under genuine uncertainty, where probabilities are not merely unknown but undefined, cannot be modeled as optimization. The multiplier and liquidity preference follow from that starting point.

The tradition split almost immediately over what to keep. The neoclassical synthesis of Hicks and Samuelson rendered Keynes in equilibrium terms compatible with the orthodoxy he had attacked, producing the textbook Keynesianism that governed postwar policy and, post-Keynesians argue, discarding the uncertainty that was the whole point. Joan Robinson called the result bastard Keynesianism. Hyman Minsky rebuilt the neglected half into a theory of financial instability in which stability itself breeds the leverage that ends it.

Stagflation in the 1970s broke the postwar consensus, since simultaneous inflation and unemployment fitted the synthesis badly, and the monetarist and New Classical counter-revolutions displaced it. New Keynesian economics recovered the policy conclusions by grounding them in sticky prices and imperfect competition, accepting the microfoundational terms of its opponents in order to do so. The 2008 crisis and Minsky's sudden relevance returned both strands to the center of argument without settling which of them Keynes would have recognized.

Lineage

Descends from

  • Liberal Political Thought19th-20th century

    Keynes was a Liberal by party and conviction, and presented the General Theory as the way to save a liberal market order from itself.

  • Political Economy18th century to present

    The General Theory attacks a classical orthodoxy from inside its own tradition, arguing demand rather than price flexibility governs employment.

Gave rise to

  • Social Democracy20th century to present

    The postwar settlement rested on demand management: full employment was the precondition for everything else social democracy promised.

Formed against

  • Classical Liberalism17th-19th century

    Keynes announced the end of laissez-faire and denied its central reassurance: that an unmanaged economy returns to full employment on its own.

Provoked a reaction in

  • Austrian School EconomicsLate 19th century to present

    Hayek argued against Keynes that aggregates conceal the thing that matters — the structure of production — and that demand management distorts the price signals coordinating it.

  • Chicago School EconomicsMid-20th century to present

    Friedman's monetary history recast the Depression as a central-bank failure rather than a failure of markets, moving the argument from fiscal management to the money supply.

  • Ordoliberalism20th century to present

    Against discretionary demand management: policy should set the rules of the order and then hold to them, since discretion is what interest groups capture.

Thinkers3
Voices today5 living

Living writers, politicians and public figures working in this tradition today. Association, not endorsement: a figure appears where their stated commitments place them, and is reachable by role and search like everyone else.

Related through shared thinkers6