Conservative Haplotype Rarity: ~7% of population

Moderate Conservative

You lean toward free markets and traditional values without extreme positions. Change should be gradual; markets generally efficient; tradition has wisdom.

Orientation: Fiscal conservatism, social moderation, incremental change

Dimension Scores

Liberty
50
Markets
62
Global
45
Culture
48

Understanding This Type

Moderate Conservatives represent the historically dominant strain of American conservatism: fiscally conservative, socially moderate, institutionally minded, and temperamentally cautious. They believe in free markets, limited government, and traditional values—but without the ideological fervor or cultural warfare that characterizes more activist strains.

This strain traces to the "establishment" Republicanism of Eisenhower, Ford, and the Bushes: pro-business, internationalist, and comfortable with gradual social change as long as it doesn't threaten core institutions. They see themselves as the adults in the room—pragmatic dealmakers who get things done rather than ideological purists who achieve nothing.

Moderate Conservatives believe markets generally work better than government mandates but accept regulation to correct market failures and provide public goods. They lean traditional on values but don't think government should mandate morality in most cases. They support a strong defense and American leadership but are wary of overreach and adventurism.

The strain has lost influence in the Trump era, caught between populist nationalism and progressive Democrats. What was once the mainstream—free trade, immigration reform, entitlement reform, internationalism—is now challenged from right and left. Some have become "Never Trump" voices; others have made peace with the new GOP; many feel increasingly homeless.

At roughly 7% of the population, Moderate Conservatives remain significant—they're the suburban voters both parties compete for, the business community, and much of the professional class. They're influential in corporate boardrooms, country clubs, and traditional media even as they've lost ground in Republican primaries and conservative media.

Dimension Analysis

Personal Liberty

50

Balanced on personal liberty—support individual freedom but within reasonable limits. Neither libertarian nor authoritarian, they accept some regulation and social expectations while opposing overreach from any direction.

  • Support gun rights with reasonable regulations (background checks)
  • Abortion should be legal but restricted (not a right, not banned)
  • Drug policy balanced between enforcement and treatment
  • Religious liberty important but not absolute

Market Economy

62

Pro-market with pragmatic acceptance of government role. Believe free enterprise drives prosperity but markets need rules. Support lower taxes and reduced regulation while accepting safety net and public goods.

  • Lower taxes to promote growth and investment
  • Reduce regulatory burden on business
  • Free trade benefits consumers and the economy
  • Reform entitlements rather than eliminate or massively expand them

Global Orientation

45

Moderately internationalist—support American leadership, alliances, and engagement while avoiding unnecessary interventions. Traditional Republican foreign policy before the nationalist turn.

  • NATO and traditional alliances remain important
  • Free trade agreements generally beneficial
  • Immigration reform: enforcement plus legal pathways
  • American leadership necessary for world order

Cultural Values

48

Mildly traditional but tolerant. Personal preference for traditional values without strong desire to impose them. Uncomfortable with both cultural progressivism and culture war politics.

  • Traditional family valued but not legally mandated
  • Religious but separation of church and state respected
  • Same-sex marriage: "moved on" even if personally uncomfortable
  • Diversity valued but "wokeness" concerns overblown

Core Beliefs

  • Lower taxes and lighter regulation boost growth and opportunity for all
  • Traditional values are wise but mostly shouldn't be legally mandated
  • Markets usually work better than government—but not always
  • Change should be gradual; radical movements usually backfire
  • Institutions matter—preserve them rather than burn them down
  • Compromise is how democracy works; purity is for losers

Internal Tensions

  • Pragmatism vs. principles—when do you stand firm?
  • Business interests vs. broader conservative coalition
  • Trump accommodation vs. institutional/normative concerns
  • Fiscal conservatism vs. political popularity of spending
  • Elite respectability vs. populist energy needed to win elections

Foundational Thinkers

Martin Feldstein

Harvard economist and Reagan advisor (1939-2019)

William F. Buckley Jr.

National Review founder (1925-2008)

George Will

Conservative columnist and author

Irving Kristol

Neoconservative intellectual godfather (1920-2009)

Charles Krauthammer

Pulitzer Prize-winning conservative columnist (1950-2018)

Contemporary Voices

Mitt Romney

Senator representing establishment conservatism

Larry Hogan

Former Maryland governor, moderate Republican

Jonah Goldberg

The Dispatch founder and conservative commentator

David French

New York Times conservative columnist

Bill Kristol

Bulwark founder and Never Trump voice

Communities & Spaces

Wall Street Journal readers Web

Financial conservative audience

Chamber of Commerce networks Various

Business conservative spaces

Suburban Republican groups Facebook

Local moderate politics

Country club conservatives Various

Traditional GOP social networks

The Dispatch readers Web

Never-Trump conservatives

Key Institutions

American Enterprise Institute

Center-right think tank on economics and policy

Hoover Institution

Stanford-based conservative research center

Manhattan Institute

Free-market urban policy research

U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Business advocacy organization

Republican Main Street Partnership

Moderate GOP caucus

How It Compares

vs. National Conservative (Establishment vs. Populist)

Aspect Moderate Conservative National Conservative
Trade Free trade Protectionist
Immigration Reform path Dramatic reduction
Foreign Policy Internationalist America First
Style Establishment Insurgent

vs. Market Liberal (Bipartisan Center)

Aspect Moderate Conservative Market Liberal
Party Republican-leaning Democrat-leaning
Social Issues Moderate conservative Progressive
Regulations Generally skeptical Selectively supportive
Culture War Avoid both sides Lean progressive

vs. Classical Liberal (Ideological Neighbor)

Aspect Moderate Conservative Classical Liberal
Ideology Pragmatic Principled
Social Issues Moderate More libertarian
Foreign Policy Internationalist Varied/skeptical
Compromise Expected More reluctant

Common Critiques

Moderate Conservatives enabled dysfunction by never fighting for anything
We achieved significant wins on taxes, deregulation, and judicial appointments through coalition-building. Uncompromising purity produces satisfying defeats, not victories. The populist right has fire but few durable accomplishments; we have a record of governance.
You're just corporate shills who abandoned working-class voters
Pro-growth policies benefit workers through jobs and opportunity. The populist alternative—tariffs, spending, instability—may feel good but produces inflation and uncertainty that hurt workers most. We're not against workers; we disagree about what helps them.
The "moderate" position keeps moving left—you're just slower progressives
Accepting some social changes (like gay marriage) while fighting others (like gender ideology in schools) isn't surrender—it's triage. Societies change; conservatism means managing that change wisely, not pretending 1950 can return. We choose our battles.
Never Trump moderates care more about norms and decorum than policy wins
Norms and institutions matter—they're what allows democratic governance to function. Short-term policy wins purchased by degrading institutions and empowering demagoguery may not be worth the price. Some of us made different calculations; that's legitimate disagreement.
You're politically homeless—too MAGA for Democrats, too establishment for Republicans
True, it's uncomfortable. But positions should be based on what's right, not what's popular. American politics is cyclical; the center-right will be relevant again. Meanwhile, we'll work with whoever will work with us on specific issues.

Frequently Asked Questions

"RINO" (Republican In Name Only) is a slur from the right suggesting insufficient loyalty. Moderate Conservatives see themselves as representing traditional conservatism against radical disruption. Whether that's "true" conservatism is contested—but the Reagan coalition included many positions now called "RINO."
It varies widely. Some became Never Trump and left the party. Others held their noses and voted based on judges and policy. Many privately dislike the style while appreciating some outcomes. It's the defining split within this strain—and it hasn't healed.
They lost—to Trump, to populism, to a changing party base. Free trade, immigration reform, entitlement reform, and internationalism all became liabilities. Some adapted; others became Democrats or independents; many remain nominal Republicans who vote but don't engage with MAGA-era politics.
Unclear. Some believe populism will burn out and normalcy will return. Others think demographic and cultural changes permanently altered the party. A third view: moderate conservatives will increasingly operate as independents or bipartisan deal-makers rather than partisan leaders.
Politicians like Larry Hogan, Lisa Murkowski, and some House moderates. Think tanks like AEI retain moderate elements. Media figures like David Brooks or the old National Review crowd. Business communities and suburban voters. It's more a demographic than an organized movement now.

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